Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi dan Pembiayaan Utang terhadap Dinamika Perekonomian di Indonesia
Studi Kasus: PDB, Nilai Tukar, Surat Utang Negara, SBSN, dan Utang Luar Negeri
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56910/gemilang.v6i4.4024Keywords:
VECM, Cointegration, GDP, Exchange Rate, Government Debt, IRF, FEVDAbstract
This study aims to analyze the short- and long-run dynamic relationships between government debt financing variables and macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, this study combines variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange Rate (ER), Government Bonds (SUN), State Sharia Securities (SBSN), and External Debt (ULN). The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to examine how these variables influence each other and adjust towards long-run equilibrium. The results indicate the existence of two stable cointegration relationships. In the long run, GDP and the Exchange Rate are found to significantly affect SBSN. Furthermore, GDP and SUN significantly affect external debt, indicating a substitution effect between domestic debt (SUN) and external debt (ULN). Analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) further confirms these dynamics, indicating that shocks to debt and GDP variables contribute significantly to explaining the variation of other variables in the system
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